 |
|||||||||
 |
 |
 |
 |
 |
 |
 |
 |
||
 |
|||||||||
|
|
 |
|
|||||||
|
William A.
Harris, CFA earned his undergraduate degree, with honors, from
Stanford University, including study at Oxford University. He
received his Masters of Science in Financial Analysis (MSFA) from
Portland State University. He has completed the Chartered Financial
Analyst program and earned the CFA designation, a
globally-recognized standard for measuring the competence and
integrity of investment professionals.
Halfway into the year, Chief Investment Officer William A. Harris reflects on jumpiness in the stock market recently. He also emphasizes the investment opportunities that volatility can bring, especially when considered within a long-term, strategic framework. To that end, he lays out some of the main themes guiding Allen Trust Company’s strategic vision for capital allocation in the years ahead. 7/12/2010
The stock market has just come off its worst month of May in almost half a century, and volatility has spiked to levels not seen since the deepest throes of the financial crisis. This would seem to validate a cash-heavy investment posture… but does it? Waiting on the sidelines until the all-clear whistle blows may be comfortable, but it is unlikely to pay off in the long-run: by the time the market finally shakes loose of its worst fears, assets won’t be cheap. 6/11/2010
By summoning nearly $1 trillion to bail out Greece and other debtor nations approaching insolvency, the European Central Bank hopes to avoid a repeat of the market meltdown that followed institutional collapses in the USA in 2008. But add political uncertainty to economic uncertainty, and the bailout’s success is far from a sure thing for a group of countries which may have a common currency but also long-standing differences. To William A. Harris, CFA, a widening range of potential outcomes demands a higher return to compensate for new risks. 5/11/2010
Many of you wonder how the U.S. can avoid runaway inflation with all its government bailout packages, stimulus spending, record Treasury issuance and federal deficits as far as the eye can see. It’s a question we chew over regularly at Allen Trust Company, and one that has us trying to build inflation-protection into the portfolios we manage. Even so, we think that in the short run, inflation is a bit of a boogeyman, something feared despite being nowhere in evidence. In this month’s newsletter, Chief Investment Officer William A. Harris discusses the factors and metrics which make us believe a monstrous inflation won’t be breathing down our necks anytime soon. 4/7/2010
Amidst all the hopeful talk of economic recovery which has
accompanied the markets’ recovery in the last year, banks quietly
continue to fail across the nation. Indeed, 2009 saw more banks
close than did 2008, and in 2010, the trend continues. In the wake
of a burst credit bubble, however, pulling bad loans out of the
shadows and liquidating insolvent institutions are essential to
repairing the system. 3/9/2010
We all tend to build personal stories around our investments and even imbue them and the dollars they produce with almost human characteristics, but doing so doesn’t help us build better portfolios. Similarly, homespun financial wisdom such as “don’t eat your seed corn” can be counterproductive if interpreted strictly from an accounting perspective. In the grand scheme of things, what matters is net total return after taxes, however arrived at. This month, William A. Harris discusses why neither old sayings nor accounting convention excuse our defying economic good sense. 2/11/2010
Chief Investment Officer William A. Harris, CFA, reviews last year’s markets through the prism of expectations at the outset of 2009. What’s more, he shares his outlook for 2010, a year in which he sees fundamentals taking center stage again after a period when momentum has been driving the markets. 1/7/2010
More and more borrowers have been falling behind on their loans, and at a pace faster than banks are setting aside loss reserves. Other indicators in bank credit are still getting worse in spite of more than two year’s intervention by the Federal Reserve to turn the tide of debt deflation. While the Fed may have bought the economy some time, it may be losing its ability to do so again. 12/9/2009
The mountain of subprime mortgage resets that helped make the last couple of years so trying is behind us. For the better part of a year now we've been in a happy valley where there have been fewer resets, and most of them have been higher quality Prime and agency mortgages. Now, though, a craggy peak heaves into view: two years of Alt-A and Option ARM resets, dead-ahead. What does this mean for the markets and the economy? 11/11/2009
Pop quiz: How much of U.S. stock market returns have come from dividends historically? You might be surprised! Find out the answer in this month’s Allen Trust Company investment update, where portfolio manager William A. Harris pulls apart the historical numbers and suggests what today’s yield level may mean for future returns. 10/7/2009
The markets have been as giddy over the last six months as they were doom-struck in the prior six. What’s more, the Conference Board’s index of leading economic indicators now seems to be affirming the bullishness. Even so, Portfolio Manager William A. Harris risks looking a gift horse in the mouth and asks a tough question: Do the leading indicators still have predictive power when government intervention in the economy reaches such an extreme as it has over the last year? 9/9/2009
The stock market lately has been premature in its enthusiasm, judges portfolio manager William A. Harris. Government intervention has distorted numerous market and private side dynamics, such that reports of prosperity “just around the corner” may be based on some inappropriate assumptions that a dollar given is practically the same as a dollar earned. The takeaway? That there may yet be valor in caution, though caution for now brings the pain of watching stocks you don’t own continue to rise. 8/4/2009
Most investors seem to be treating threats of deflation and inflation as if they presented an “either/or” dynamic. Rather, suggests Allen Trust Company's Portfolio Manager William A. Harris, we may have to contend with each in tandem. In this month’s letter, he describes a high stakes balancing act. 7/7/2009
The equity markets have enjoyed a powerful three-month rally, and a breathtaking run-up in bank stocks has been headiest of all though they're still down slightly for the year, the S&P 500 Financials have jumped more than two-thirds since early March. Can this be for real? Allen Trust Company Portfolio Manager William A Harris sifts through the numbers and screens out the noise. 6/2/2009
Beware not Greeks bearing gifts, but politicians and bankers... In this month's letter, William A. Harris knits his brow as the powers-that-be roll out plan after plan to address the financial crisis. The outcomes may be good if the planner's understanding is sound, their application of power is consistent, and their willingness to defy popular opinion is steadfast. But if their efforts are misconceived, applied ad hoc, or crafted to avoid impolitic discomfort, they can crack open a Pandora's Box of unintended consequences. 5/5/2009
The first quarter of 2009 was the stock market's worst opening since 1939, yet in the last three weeks of March it rallied hard to deliver the best month in years. So what to do - fret or celebrate? This month, portfolio manager William A. Harris counsels the importance of holding fast to who we are as investors, and not getting whipsawed by a split-personality market. 4/4/2009
In this month's newsletter, William A. Harris shares a unique view of what it can take to maintain core portfolio vitality at times of maximum financial stress. 3/3/2009
Do you know how much of the stock market's historical return has come from dividends? The answer might surprise you! To many investors, investment income is an afterthought compared to market price changes. At Allen Trust Company and Allen Capital Management, portfolio income matters immensely. In this month's investment update, portfolio manager William A. Harris discusses issues that too often get overlooked and looks at cash yields for different asset classes these days. 2/9/2009
In his yearend investment update, portfolio manager William A. Harris reflects on the madness of the markets in 2008, explores investment themes for the future, and voices a perspective that doesn't get much ink these days by stressing one bedrock conviction: "that the American system of political economy will shoulder forward in the long haul, and ultimately benefit those who participate patiently." The challenges we face now, while severe indeed, are more Great Derangement than Great Depression. 12/29/2008
|
|
 |
|||||||
|
|
|||||||||
 |
|||||||||
|
©2006 Allen Trust Company | home | account access | contact us | investment management | about us | Allen Trust Company | Privacy and Security |
|||||||||
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|